This weekend we have the largest competition we’ve ever seen for DraftKings MMA. We have a $10 entry contest with $300,000 in total prizes, and $100,000 of that to 1st place. I never thought we would observe a 6-figure 1st place prize for MMA but that I was incorrect and I can not wait to chase it. Conor McGregor vs Khabib Nurmagomedov is going to be the biggest fight in UFC history and DraftKings simply made it bigger for us DFS players. We are down to 12-fights therefore that we could observe a number of ties for that 1st place prize, so try to be different with your lineups someplace, or make wages on the table to be different in that way. With that said, here are a Couple of plays I enjoy this weekend along with my fade of this week:
Money Game play of the week — Vicente Luque ($9,400)
Luque is the»safest» play on the card with a good margin in his -900 betting line. I love plugging in these high likelihood guys in cash so that I can lock a triumph in there and worry about finding 3 other wins from my 5 additional areas. We generally only want 4 wins in cash games to beat the cash line, so that is what I take for in these 50/50 or twice up games. Luque has been quite remarkable in his UFC run and he’s overcome some fairly big names. On paper, this is only one of his easiest matches nonetheless. He also has large time upside with his finishing potential. He’s got an ITD line of -270, therefore I think we can have 100+ points in this triumph. He is a good play in all formats, however he is going to be chalky in tournaments, so that is why he’s my cash play of this week instead.
GPP drama of the week — Alexander Volkov ($8,700)
Heavyweights are almost always good to aim in GPPs because it only takes 1 shot with a lot of these guys. I believe that this is a great matchup for Volkov and he’s only priced at $8.7k weekly. If he can find a 1st round KO at the price, he’ll probably be on the winning LU. Same goes for Lewis, therefore he’s a good GPP play too. However, my choice to win is going to be Volkov and that I enjoy his price. I think a few guys priced above him this week will be a lot higher owned, therefore we could get a heavyweight favored at lower ownership here. Fight Does Not Go To Decision is presently lined at -190, therefore this is a good GPP struggle to aim over all. If you like the Dark Beast to get the W, then he’s a fantastic fighter to throw on your GPP LUs.
Underdog drama of this week — Tony Martin ($7,400)
Here really is the best odds value on the card. Presently, Laflare is lined at -135 and Tony Martin is lined at +115. However, on DraftKings Laflare is priced $1,400 greater than Martin. I love searching for line value like that which alone puts Martin in drama in most formats. Martin also has the better odds to end this battle ITD, so that is another plus with him. I like the flooring for Martin in money games as well because Laflare isn’t very likely to finish if he wins. So, at $7.4k, we could afford a loss from Martin and take the things he can rack up in 15-minutes.
Fade of the week — Sergio Pettis ($8,600)
Sergio Pettis could get the win here. But he’s going to need to get a end to pay off his $8.6k price . Sergio will not be heading for any takedowns in this battle, and he doesn’t strike at a high enough rate for him to find 10x of that $8.6k. Sergio will be the better fighter around the feet, but when he doesn’t get an end he then probably only scores 60-70 points at a win. Those low scores don’t cut it at $8.6k. There are just better plays points per dollar and people are the guys I will be targeting. Sergio is a solid fade if you are making 20 or less lineups this weekend.
Thanks for reading this and decent luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight on the card and provide my full DraftKings evaluation, in Addition to all of my pick predictions, then you can find that for only $7.99 on this link below:
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