This weekend, we have a 13-fight card at Florida. DraftKings has some solid contests for us to win a great deal of cash from this week. The most important GPP is a $15 buy-in and $25k belongs to 1st place with a total of $120k being paid out. They also have a new Qualifier only contest for $175,000. There’ll be 100 qualifiers for that competition and they will compete for a $50k first place cost and $175k will probably be spread out between all 100 admissions that qualify. I will try to get my 2nd chair this week if possible. Those Qualifier only contests can be actual bankroll suckers, so be cautious chasing those too hard. I will likely stick to the top GPP this week and then throw 50-100 entrances at that $25k prize, then I will likely have a few shots in the Q. I will also be publishing H2Hs in addition to picking up H2Hs through the week to receive a good amount of play into cash games.
With that said, let us get to a few plays I like this week Together with my fade of the week:
Money Game play of the week — Roosevelt Roberts — $9,500
I expect Roberts to be the much better fighter anywhere this battle goes. I believe Gifford’s best shot at a win will be gearing a guillotine. Other than that, I think we’ve got a pretty safe win here using Roberts and that is precisely what I am looking for. I need the safer wins in cash and I will worry about who’s going to score the highest in GPPs. I think we could eliminate him at the GPPs at his cost because if he puts up 90 DK points in a win then that won’t win 25k. It will help us triumph in money games though and I would be amazed if he had a low scoring win . I believe he’s excellent for 80-100 points here and I am totally ok with that in my cash lineup.
GPP play of this week — Greg Hardy- $9,300
Hardy is my GPP drama of this week and he’s the highest ITD chances on the card at -222. This is a set up struggle for him to receive a knockout and I believe that is most likely going to happen in the first round. That should place Hardy over 100 points and I am interested in that. Hardy is going to be among my best plays of the week, but he is GPP only for me. We can’t trust him sufficient for cash games, so that is why I enjoy Roberts longer in that arrangement. I do think Hardy can outscore Roberts though if they win, and he’s $200 cheaper. That could knock Roberts off the top lineup and in spite of high ownership we could win that $25k with Hardy in our lineup as long as he receives the early KO. Hardy wins in round 1 is strung in -130 and that’s too great for me to pass in GPPs.
Underdog drama of the week — Glover Teixeira — $7,900
Teixeira is no more the underdog on the betting line (-120) but DraftKings salaries don’t change as soon as they’re released. We receive Teixeira here for 400 cheaper than Cutelaba and he is preferred to get the win. I also believe he could win in the 1st round with a score and submission over 90 points. That would give him a fantastic shot at being to the perfect lineup. I will be targeting both sides of this fight in GPPs because I don’t expect it to move all 3 rounds, but value on Teixeira is exactly what I like the most and we have to own»underdogs» within our DK lineups together with the $50k salary cap. I believe that the obvious path to victory for Glover is to the ground and that is precisely what I expect his game must be. I enjoy him to find a submission win if he is able to land takedowns and he’ll be among my greatest possessed underdogs this week.
Fade of this week — Carla Esparza ($8,200)
I understand people were expecting me to place Angela Hill as my fade at $9.4k. She’s a solid fade too… But I’m going with Esparza as my fade this week and that I have zero lineups such as her. Generally, Esparza is a good wrestler and we like wrestlers in DraftKings. I simply don’t see wrestling being in her best interest against Jandiroba and that I believe she uses her wrestling in shield to attempt to keep this fight on the feet. Each of the danger is on the floor in this matchup and Carla has the better boxing of both. I believe she could acquire a 30-27 striking decision but that won’t score highly, and I’d guess it sets up around ~60 DK points. That is not going to cut it at $8.2k so I simply don’t see how she ends up about the $25k lineup this week even if she does win, and that’s why she is my fade of the week.
Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my own full-card breakdown where I breakdown every struggle about the card and give my full DraftKings evaluation, in Addition to all of my pick predictions, then you’ll find that for just $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium bets are available at that link as well. I’m 69-44 to get +224.83u (+$22,483) since May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)
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